Updated May 2022
Within this section
Highlights of 2021
Henry Hub: The primary price benchmark for U.S. natural gas increased by 75 per cent in 2021, averaging US$3.72 per million British thermal units (MMBtu). The increase in the Henry Hub price was primarily attributable to low U.S. drilling activity in 2020, leading to a tight supply in the near term combined with increased demand for LNG exports.
AECO-C: The AECO-C price benchmark for western Canadian natural gas increased 60 per cent from 2020 to an average of Cdn$3.37 per gigajoule (GJ) in 2021. The price increase was primarily attributed to higher demand and tight supply in the near term.
Price differential: The price differential between AECO-C and Henry Hub widened to $0.90/MMBtu in 2021, up from US$0.50/MMBtu in 2020.
Table S1.2 shows the historical and forecasted Henry Hub and AECO-C natural gas prices.
Highlights for 2022 to 2031
Henry Hub: The Henry Hub price is projected to increase to US$3.90/MMBtu in 2022 and US$4.02/MMBtu by 2031. Demand is anticipated to increase, primarily driven by growth in U.S. liquefied natural gas and pipeline exports.
AECO-C: The AECO-C price is projected to increase to Cdn$3.55/GJ in 2022 and Cdn$3.59/GJ by 2031.
Price differential: The price differential between AECO-C and Henry Hub reflects transportation costs, regional supply and demand balances, infrastructure constraints, and the U.S./Canadian dollar exchange rate. The AECO-C and Henry Hub price differential is anticipated to increase from US$0.90/MMBtu in 2022 to US$0.98/MMBtu by 2031.