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Updated May 2022

 

Production Forecast

Each commodity supply forecast:

  • included production from new and existing projects, and
  • considered all approved and applied-for projects.

Projects considered for each commodity supply forecast were assessed for the likelihood of meeting the on‑stream date and stated production capacity. Some projects, although considered, were not included in the ten-year forecast due to their high level of uncertainty to be on stream within the next decade.

Forecast considerations and factors affecting each specific commodity are described below.

Hydrogen

Trend analysis was used to determine the pace of production expansion out to 2031. All existing projects assumed would continue producing at normal production levels over the forecast.

The forecasts for hydrogen considered factors that may affect the pace of development, such as supportive policies and the de-risking of projects through government partnerships.

Geothermal

Autoregressive-moving average (ARMA) modelling1 was used to determine the pace of production expansion out to 2031. All existing projects assumed would continue producing at normal production levels over the forecast.

The forecasts for geothermal considered factors that may affect the pace of development, such as the cost of competing renewable energy sources.

Helium

In projecting helium production, we combined expected production from active wells with new wells placed on production. The number of new wells placed on production and their average initial productivity and decline rates are the main determining factors in projecting production volumes. ARMA modelling was used to determine the pace of production expansion out to 2031.

Data

Hydrogen and Geothermal Data

All 2021 data collected was based on AER research and publicly available data. There is no official data source for hydrogen or geothermal in the province.

Helium Data

All 2021 data is as reported by industry until the end of December and does not capture any subsequent amendments. We used helium production volumes and active well counts submitted in Petrinex.

1 A statistical method of predicting future performance based on past performance.