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Updated May 2022

 

Ethane

In 2021

Production: Ethane production in Alberta declined 6.4 per cent in 2021 compared with 2020, averaging 33.9 thousand cubic metres per day (103 m3/d) or 214.9 thousand barrels per day (103 bbl/d). Production was down due to higher than average ethane rejection rates.

Demand: In 2021, Alberta demand for ethane declined to 38.5 103 m3/d (243.4 103 bbl/d), and Vantage pipeline imports declined to 4.5 103 m3/d (28.6 103 bbl/d). This decline was driven by planned maintenance of the ethylene crackers at the Dow Chemical and Nova Chemicals facilities at the end of the year. Ethane is imported via the Vantage pipeline to meet petrochemical demand.

Forecast for 2022 to 2031

Production: Ethane production is forecast to recover in 2022 and reach 39.0 103 m3/d (247.0 103 bbl/d) by 2031. While the production of raw natural gas is projected to grow over the next ten years, Alberta's ethane supply remains flat as ethane potential is assumed to be left in the NGL stream or rejected due to current levels of ethane processing capacity and a share of demand satisfied by contracted imports.

Demand: Ethane demand is forecast to recover in 2022 and reach 44.2 103 m3/d (279.9 103 bbl/d) by 2031. DOW's recently announced net-zero ethylene cracker is expected to provide additional capacity as it is phased in, reaching full capacity by 2030. Ethane potential in Alberta remains high and will likely be the target of new investment decisions announced under the Alberta Petrochemical Incentive Program.

Figure S6.1 shows Alberta's ethane supply from natural gas and demand.

Propane

In 2021

Production: Propane production in Alberta was 36.3 103 m3/d (228.7 103 bbl/d) in 2021, up 5.3 per cent from 2020.This increase is consistent with the growth in raw natural gas production in 2021.

Demand: In 2021, Alberta demand for propane grew to 9.4 103 m3/d (59.4 103 bbl/d), up 9.4 per cent from 2020, primarily due to an increase in industrial and agriculture demand.

Forecast for 2022 to 2031

Production: Propane production is projected grow over the forecast period, reflecting anticipated growth in natural gas production and continued targeting of liquids‑rich gas by producers. Propane production is expected to increase from 37.1 103 m3/d (233.7 103 bbl/d) in 2022 to 45.2 103 m3/d (284.5 103 bbl/d) by 2031. This gradual growth is in line with the production forecast for natural gas.

Demand: Propane demand is projected to grow in 2022 by nearly 30 per cent compared with 2021, increasing to 12.1 103 m3/d (76.4 103 bbl/d). This increase is primarily driven by feedstock requirements for Inter Pipeline's polypropylene and propane dehydrogenation facilities, which are anticipated to begin operations in 2022. Propane demand maintains steady growth throughout the forecast period, reaching 15.2 103 m3/d (96.0 103 bbl/d) by 2031.

Propane is exported by rail to the U.S. to meet agricultural and seasonal demand.

Figure S6.2 shows Alberta's propane supply from natural gas and demand.

Butane

In 2021

Production: Butane production in Alberta grew in 2021, reaching 21.7 103 m3/d (136.7 103 bbl/d), in line with higher butanes prices, increased natural gas production, and continued targeting of gas from liquids-rich areas. Excess supply is assumed to be stored or removed from the province, including as a mixed product such as liquified petroleum gas (LPG).

Demand: Butane demand grew 16 per cent from 2020 to a historical high of 16.5 103 m3/d (103.7 103 bbl/d). Demand was driven by an increase in feedstock demand from the petrochemical industry, blending with nonupgraded bitumen, and use as an isooctane enhancer at refineries.

Forecast for 2022 to 2031

Production: Butane production is expected to maintain steady growth throughout the forecast period, reaching 26.8 103 m3/d (168.9 103 bbl/d) by 2031 as producers continue to target economically attractive liquids-rich gas areas, such as the Duvernay and Montney Formations.

Demand: Butane demand is also expected to maintain steady growth, reaching 19.8 103 m3/d (124.8 103 bbl/d) by 2031, driven primarily by consistent demand for blending with nonupgraded bitumen.

Figure S6.3 shows Alberta's supply and demand of butane from natural gas.

Pentanes Plus

In 2021

Production: Pentanes plus production in Alberta grew by 3.5 per cent in 2021 compared with 2020, averaging 54.9 103 m3/d (345.6 103 bbl/d). This increase is consistent with the growth in raw natural gas production in 2021.

Demand: In 2021, Alberta demand for pentanes plus grew to 110.8 103 m3/d (697.3 103 bbl/d), up 14.4 per cent from 2020.

Forecast for 2022 to 2031

Production: Pentanes plus production is projected to grow over the forecast period, reaching a high of 76.9 103 m3/d (483.8 103 bbl/d) by 2031 as producers continue targeting liquids-rich Montney, Upper Mannville, and Duvernay Formations.

Demand: Demand for pentanes plus is expected to grow, reaching 150.0 103 m/d (943.9 103 bbl/d) by 2031. This forecast correlates with bitumen production projections over the forecast period.

Imports of pentanes plus into Alberta are also expected to increase over the next ten years to meet the forecast shortfall between supply and demand for diluent. Alberta currently imports pentanes plus by rail and pipeline (e.g., Kinder Morgan's Cochin and Enbridge's Southern Lights pipeline systems).

Figure S6.4 shows Alberta's supply of pentanes plus from natural gas and demand for diluent.

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