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Updated June 2023

 

Figure S4.6 shows the demand history and forecast for Alberta refineries and removal of crude oil.

Demand

In 2022

The Alberta economy has recovered from the COVID-19 pandemic, fuelled by higher oil prices. This supported higher demand for refined products, such as gasoline and jet fuel, as pandemic restrictions were lifted and Albertans drove more. Alberta’s demand for crude oil increased from 17.9 thousand cubic metres per day (103 m3/d), or 112.7 thousand barrels per day 103 bbl/d, in 2021 to 19.3 103 m3/d (121.4 103 bbl/d) in 2022.

Figure S4.7 shows Alberta’s operating refineries in 2022 had an estimated total combined throughput of 85.9 103 m3/d (540.6 103 bbl/d) of crude oil equivalent, representing a utilization rate of nearly 100 per cent for throughput to refinery capacity.

The total throughput consisted of

  • 27 per cent crude oil and pentanes,
  • 62 per cent synthetic crude oil, and
  • 11 per cent nonupgraded bitumen.

Forecast for 2023 to 2032

Crude oil demand is expected to ease in 2023 as higher interest rates cool the economy and weigh on demand for refined petroleum products. Alberta’s demand for crude oil is projected to ease to 19.1 103 m3/d (120.1 103 bbl/d) in 2023 before rebounding to 19.3 103 m3/d (121.4 103 bbl/d) in 2024. It is expected to remain constant to 2032 because of no new refineries or significant refinery expansions.

Removals

In 2022

In 2022, 75 per cent of the total crude oil produced was removed from the province. The oil not refined in Alberta refineries was assumed to eventually be removed from Alberta. In 2022, total oil removed (upgraded and nonupgraded bitumen plus crude oil and pentanes plus) was 590.4 103 m3/d (3.7 106 bbl/d), with crude oil accounting for about 10 per cent (58.0 103 m3/d [365.0 103 bbl/d]).

Forecast for 2023 to 2032

By 2025, crude oil removals from Alberta are expected to increase by an average of 7 per cent to 71.2 103 m3/d (448.2 103 bbl/d) and then decline to 63.5 103 m3/d (399.5 103 bbl/d) by 2032. This trend aligns with the crude oil production forecast and no new refineries or significant expansions to Alberta crude oil demand.

By 2032, total oil removals are expected to increase to 743.8 103 m3/d (4.7 106 bbl/d), while the share of crude oil removals is expected to fall to about 9 per cent owing to continued growth in nonupgraded bitumen production. Pipeline takeaway capacities are projected to increase during the forecast period to support increased total oil production and removals.

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