Updated May 2022
Figure S1.3 shows historical and forecast prices for Canadian Light Sweet (CLS).
The average annual price of CLS in 2021 was Cdn$80.28 per barrel (bbl), an increase of 76 per cent from 2020.
The base-case price for CLS is projected to increase to Cdn$113.13/bbl in 2022, dropping to Cdn$98.07/bbl in 2023 and Cdn$90.40/bbl in 2024. From 2025 onwards, the price is projected to increase, reaching Cdn$101.81/bbl by 2031.
The low- and high-price cases for CLS align with the assumptions for the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) forecast. The projection for the low-price case is Cdn$73.19/bbl for 2022, Cdn$62.90/bbl for 2023, and Cdn$60.51/bbl for 2031. The projection for the high-price case is Cdn$174.84/bbl for 2022, Cdn$152.90/bbl for 2023, and Cdn$171.31/bbl for 2031.
The price trajectory for CLS is expected to follow the WTI trend after accounting for transportation costs and regional market conditions.
Price differentials: The WTI-CLS differential was US$3.89/bbl in 2021, down from US$5.08/bbl in 2020.
The WTI-CLS price differential started in 2021 at a high of US$5.04/bbl and dropped as low as US$2.35/bbl in May. The differential fluctuated throughout 2021 before ending at US$4.69/bbl in December.
Forecast for 2022 to 2031
With new pipeline capacity online, and more to come in the following years, the WTI-CLS price differential should remain narrow and is anticipated to be in the range of US$4.50/bbl in 2022 to US$5.02/bbl by 2031.
Low- and High-Price Cases
The price trajectory of CLS follows the forecast price of WTI but is differentiated by transportation costs, regional factors, and exchange rates. The low- and high-price cases reflect near- and long-term volatility and are estimated using a 90 per cent confidence interval.